•Friday•, •May• 25, 2012
   
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Taking in the Hillary & Sergey Show at the Intercontinental

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hillary_lavrov-1.jpgFar from being an afterthought, Hillary Clinton’s brief stopover in Geneva turned out to be the pièce de résistance in what has to be seen as a virtuoso performance on her first trip to Europe as a working secretary of state. The trick was to convey the notion that the US is open to establishing a new, more open relationship with Russia, but one that is built on mutual strength. Geneva, it turned out, was the perfect neutral meeting ground for getting that message across.

Flanked by a coterie of technical advisors, Hillary andRussian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov dallied for two hours in the Intercontinental’s panoramic restaurant over a simple vegetable soup, a bit of white Turbot accompanied by an excellent wine and sweetened by an elegant chocolate moelleux. A significant part of the conversation dealt with US concerns over Iran getting the bomb, but it is also clear that much more than that was going on.

Russia, in fact, is positioned to play a critical role in some of the most important foreign policy challenges that President Obama will face during his first term in office, and Hillary made it clear that the new administration in Washington is ready to enroll Russia's assistance in dealing some of the most pressing problems the administration is likely to face in its first years in office.

The three main areas that the US is interested in (highlighted in background briefings by the State Department), are strategic arms control, Afghanistan and Iran. In Brussels, just before coming to Geneva, Hillary scored a quick victory by getting NATO to agree to a special extraordinary ministerial meeting on Afghanistan on March 31. The meeting is likely to deal not only with the conflict that is now going on inside Afghanistan but also with the turbulence that is spreading beyond Afghanistan’s borders into Pakistan, and which could end up by threatening Iran as well. Experts are beginning to refer to this as a growing crescent of crisis, and it is likely to affect all the governments in a region that is increasingly important to everyone.

Russia will be a key player in that meeting, but Iran and Pakistan are also being invited. Afghanistan, may, in fact, provide a discrete diplomatic backdoor for Washington to reopen a dialogue with Iran.  By starting a conversation on shared interests, the US may be able to set up lines of communication to the convince the Iranians not to move down the potentially suicidal path of developing a nuclear arsenal in a political unstable and unpredictable region. 

In Brussels, Clinton deftly managed to encourage NATO to restart the NATO-Russia liaison meetings, which had been suspended last August after Russia’s invasion of Georgia.  The discussions between Russia and NATO, which will resume on a regular basis will cover issues where both Russia and NATO share mutual interests, but Hillary added that they will also cover those topics on which there are differences of opinion. The bottom line: in contrast to the last eight years under the former Bush administration, the US is now prepared to listen.

One of the most pressing issues is the fact that the Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement will expire at the end of the year. Lavrov told reporters after the dinner that the current agreement is so hopelessly out of date that it could be interpreted as encouraging the US to increase its nuclear stockpile. “That would be sending a bad message,” Lavrov said. If the US wants to offer Russia a carrot to encourage cooperation on other issues, it could downsize the former Bush administration's anti-missile program  which seems like an inordinate waste of money and was never likely to work in the first place. Clinton revealed that both she and Lavrov have established a work plan, and they plan to have a proposal drafted before their respective bosses meet at the G20 summit in London at the beginning of April. Barack Obama will have his first one-on-one meeting with Russian president Dimitri Medvedev in London.

Clinton and Lavrov have been writing to each other ever since the inauguration, but this was their first chance to actually have a direct, face-to-face conversation. Lavrov, is no stranger to American thinking.  After serving for years as Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York, he has a pretty accurate picture of how the United States thinks and what it can do. He is highly sophisticated, has a good sense of humor when relaxed, and has enormous charm. He was known for some sharp exchanges with Hillary’s predecessor, Condoleezza Rice, but the relationship with Hillary seems much more relaxed. When Clinton presented him with hastily rigged “reset” button as an ice-breaking joke, she said,” We really worked hard on the translation. We hope we got it right.” Not exactly, Lavrov said. In fact, the Russian word chosen for the label meant “overload.” The joke may have fallen flat, but Clinton later told reporters that the choice wasn’t all that wrong. “We are both going to be overloaded,” she said,indicating that both she and Lavrov tend to be workaholics.  As charming as Lavrov is, he is not the only architect of Moscow’s foreign policy. The proof of success will be to turn their work plan into a reality.

Many experts see the world at a turning point—it can either revert to a series of ever-shifting alliances maneuvering for political advantage—a replay of the 19th century-- or it can move beyond that to create a truly global understanding that will allow us to get beyond traditional political bickering and deal with the more serious problems facing the human race as a whole, problems like extreme poverty in an increasingly crowded world facing diminishing resources, and now under pressure from climate change, which means that we can no longer depend on Nature to clean up our mess. Hillary Clinton’s trip was intended to signal that the US is back on board for the good fight.  The message seems to have been well received, now it is a question of turning good intentions into action.

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