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Geneva -- ‘Fragile states’ are in the spotlight at the moment, in part because of the tragedy in Haiti. By most counts, over half the world’s fragile states are in Africa. 18 months ago, there was deep concern that the global financial crisis, coming on top of fuel and food price shocks, would result in widespread political instability and conflict. For tens perhaps hundreds of millions of people, particularly women and children, poverty has increased, lives and livelihoods been lost, and progress on the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) been undermined. However, the worst fears have not been realized.

This is not to say that events across the continent, whether in Niger, Guinea-Bissau or Cote d’Ivoire, Sudan, Kenya or Madagascar, cannot be attributed partly to recession-related unrest.

The proximate triggers of violence and instability have been local political disputes, often exacerbated by the behavior of elites, many displaying indifference to the welfare of their own people. Widening inequality and a sense of injustice makes economic hardship less tolerable.

While for some, things may be looking up - the Africa Development Bank foresees an early resumption of high economic growth rates (Read Reuters' article on predicted African growth ) - chronic vulnerability to external shocks remains. It would be unwise not to expect more to come. Agility in crisis management and plans for disaster risk reduction are essential in a globalised world.

The starting point for managing fragility is appreciation of the changing nature of risks, including financial, economic (licit and illicit, such as trafficking in goods, resources, money, ideas or people), climatic or health related. Such understanding can highlight growth and poverty reduction pathways and opportunities – such as investment in low carbon growth and jobs.

Risk assessments should shape capacity development plans in and with fragile states. They should inform Africa’s insistence at the G20 and other global fora on fair and supportive economic, trade, climate and security policies, as well as for the transfer of adequate financial and technical resources.

Back home, maybe the best way to prevent fragility from lapsing into violence remains the determination of leaders and politicians to promote equitable growth and the welfare of their citizens.

"Africa has the potential, if the proper investments take place... to become a new centre of demand." Pravin Gordhan, South African Finance Minister, Chair of the African Development Bank’s Committee of 10.

Michael Keating is director of the Africa Progress Panel in Geneva.