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Geneva -- Recent data compiled by OECD-DAC reveals a story that may come as a surprise. Since 2002, development finance in Africa has more than tripled. Domestic revenues dwarf private flows, remittances, ODA and philanthropic giving, all of which have increased, but not as fast as domestic revenues. Private capital flows overtook ODA as the second largest source of development finance, though this slumped, as did Africa’s access to global capital markets, from 2008.

Revenues have been affected by the global economic and financial crisis, but exactly how is not yet clear. The crisis increased the numbers living in poverty and set MDG progress, with profound social and political consequences, not just for those directly affected. A diminishing share of development finance does not mean that ODA is less important. Private capital flows are concentrated in a few countries.

Fragile states’ ability to raise revenues is weak. Everywhere, basic social needs outstrip governments’ ability to meet them. Increased revenues do not necessarily translate into more, or more socially productive, investment. ODA, well used, plays a vital role in strengthening capacities to raise revenues, reduce illicit flows, attract remittances and private investment, achieve specific development results and create opportunities for the poor, including by strengthening accountability systems.

Focus is needed on how to make aid effective to these ends. That ODA levels are not increasing in line with Gleneagles outcomes is alarming; many donors are postponing or walking away from their pledges. Moreover, Africa has received only 34% rather than the envisaged 50% share of the increase in ODA since 2005. A conservative estimate is that this year, ODA levels to Africa will be 25% below the levels implied by Gleneagles - a $17 bn shortfall in 2008 prices.

Aid is not the answer to Africa's problems. But it can save lives and strengthen systems. Its most credible advocates are African leaders from government, civil society, business and academia. 2010 needs coalitions between them and international development agents to press G8, and OECD countries to honour their commitments.

Michael Keating is director of the Geneva-based Africa Progress Panel.