•Written by William T. Dowell• ••Thursday•, 18 •June• 2009 16:23•
There is not much that anyone can do to prevent a tropical cyclone or an earthquake, but a lot can be done to reduce the impact on people. “What kills is the vulnerability of the population,” says Margareta Wahlstrom, UN Assistant Secretary General and Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction. That was the key message at this week’s four day conference on the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, which attracted some 1800 participants. There is little question that disasters are becoming a growth industry. 300 natural disasters last year. The death toll was nearly a quarter of a million people killed and 200 million affected. The bill for damages added up to roughly $180 billion. Not only are natural disasters more numerous, they are also increasing in intensity. The UN’s International Strategic Initiative for Disaster Risk Reduction (ISDR), which coordinated the 4-day meeting here in Geneva, wants some of the funding currently earmarked for disaster relief and development programs to be shifted into preparedness. The platform’s theme this year is: “Invest today for a safer tomorrow.” That is easier said than done. There is something inherently counter-intuitive about investing in something that you hope will never happen. As John Holmes, the UN’s Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs put it, “It’s human nature. We all know that prevention is better than the cure, but we don’t necessarily follow that in our every day lives. It’s not easy to convert the logic everyone can see into investment decisions.”
What makes this year’s forum different from previous ones is the accuracy of the information that is now available. Twenty scientists, coordinated by ISDR, but also funded by the world Bank, the UN Environmental Program, and the UN Development Program as well as the Norwegian government, have spent the last two years crunching numbers on thousands of tropical cyclones, earthquakes, floods, landslides and other calamities, in order to determine which countries are most at risk.
The effort produced 1.5 terabytes of data, enough to fill a 12-foot high stack of CD-ROMS. The result is a mortality risk index incorporating the most accurate mathematical modeling of risk ever produced. Previous surveys mapped chunks of population areas that were 25 kilometers by 25 kilometers. The current risk index is based on surveys that cover an area that is only 1 kilometer by 1 kilometer, essentially a square that is a thousand yards on its side. The result is a precise picture of where each country stands in terms of risk.
The extreme cases, most people know about. They are Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Colombia and Myanmar (Burma). But some of the other high-risk groups are surprising. The United States, for instance, is grouped with Ethiopia, Nepal, Haiti and Kyrgyzstan. The reason: the US is frequently hit by tropical hurricanes, earthquakes and tornados as well as floods. An added element is the fact that the US has some deep pockets of poverty that place certain parts of its population at high risk. Hurricane Katrina is a prime example.
Some high-risk countries have already made progress in protecting themselves. Bangladesh, for instance, built 2,500 elevated concrete cyclone shelters after Cyclone Bhola killed more than 500,000 people in 1970. When Cyclone Sidr hit in 1970, the death toll was under 4,000, despite a 16-foot sea surge, which drowned much of its coastal delta.
Where vulnerability tends to be greater is in the newly urbanized mega cities where governance has not had a chance to catch up with the rapidly expanding population. Millions of slum dwellers crowding into illegal squatter shacks is a recipe for disaster, and at least 10 new mega cities on the order of Mumbai, of Slumdog Millionaire fame, are at high risk.
Just knowing that a disaster is approaching is not enough, governments need to be able to communicate with their populations on the ground, and then there needs to be a plan of action. John Holmes refers to it as “going the last mile.” Much of the Pacific now has early warning equipment to alert people to tsunami dangers. Bangladesh’s warning system for tropical cyclones includes some 32,000 volunteers who head out on bicycles and get the message to remote villages using portable electric bullhorns.
Myanmar, which lost 130,000 people killed during Cyclone Nargis, is an example of what happens when lack of preparedness is combined with poor governance. Not only did the Myanmar junta not have a plan, it’s administrative confusion and inability to focus on the problem prevented international relief from providing help to survivors once the cyclone had passed.
Holmes says he would like to see the 160 governments represented at the conference here in Geneva this week commit themselves to reallocating 10% of their humanitarian funding and 1% of their development aid to preparedness.
“Our message,” The UN’s Margareta Wahlstrom concludes, “is that you have a choice.”
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